Information and communications technology (ICT) has revolutionized the transportation and distribution of goods and services. This essay outlines the differing conclusions that transportation and planning scholars have made addressing the impact e-commerce has on urban form and travel behavior—markedly, Pettersson et al. (2018) and Shi et al. (2019). Planning for a future sustainable transportation system requires further exploration into the effect of ICT on social problems such as urban congestion and autocentricity as well as economic problems such as market disequilibrium and externalities. Notably, the domination of Amazon has the potential to transform the spatial structure of cities; therefore, the global transition from the traditional “brick-and-mortar” business model to the Internet era “click-and-mortar” business model poses great threats to local marketplaces as well as some of the world’s biggest retailers. While cumulative effects of e-commerce remain unknown, developing proactive planning initiatives to address possible benefits and concerns is advised.
INTRODUCTION
With the rapid advancement of e-commerce, the transportation and distribution of consumer goods has spurred some controversy in the field of transportation and land use planning. Particularly during the COVID-19 global pandemic, the popularity of online purchases has skyrocketed—yet how does that impact urban form? Information and communications technology (ICT) has radically shifted the accessibility of goods and services, in turn shifting the consumption patterns of conventional retail shopping and the physical trips taken by consumers. E-commerce literature is in many ways a continuation of longstanding research into telecommunications and travel since the 1960s (Mokhtarian 2002). As e-commerce becomes more popular, demand increases for the generation of new fulfillment centers, storage, and new types of retail facilities along with rapid construction of efficient urban freight systems.
Scholars in this field tend to agree on the spatial transformation of cities yet disagree on the resulting impacts of e-commerce on mobility, accessibility, and sustainability. While the argument made by Pettersson et al. (2018) suggests that e-commerce should not be regarded as an easy solution for an already unsustainable transport sector, the methodology of Shi et al. (2019) suggests that e-commerce could be a possible solution for urban congestion. In this essay, I explore forecasts of spatial structure shifts, consumer tendencies in the e-market, and the implications of freight distribution on congestion.
The rise in ICT has transformed the way consumers receive goods and services as well as how goods and services are circulated within society. The conventional retail freight landscape can be summarized by the term business-to-business whereas freight in the e-commerce market is distributed from business-to-consumer (B2C) (Rodrigue 2020). B2C distribution requires the creation of new purpose-designed facilities, modes, and channels efficiently located typically near densely occupied city centers. Freight trips generated by residential units are less researched than freight trips generated by business establishments (Wang & Zhou 2015). Importantly, ICT literature makes the distinction between changes in passenger travel due to the e-commerce market (i.e., travel behavior, travel demand) and the movement of goods by companies like Amazon (Mokhtarian 2002).
My research highlights the disagreements in how e-commerce can and will affect the spatial structure of cities as well as consumer travel behavior. Conflicting findings and hypotheses can have negative policy implications if planners cannot prepare for the variety of possible e-commerce induced changes in urban form. Policy in support of e-commerce as a tool for solving urban congestion would require serious upgrades in network modeling. On the other hand, policy in support of regulating e-commerce would aim for the preservation of local businesses, for supporting consumer needs, and for the improvements of efficient transportation/delivery modes. First, I will discuss the position of Shi et al. (2019), which sees potential for e-commerce to address key travel issues in urban environments.
THE PROMISE OF E-COMMERCE
With the rapid growth of e-retailing, scholars have begun questioning how e-shopping impacts travel. The key objective of the paper written by Shi et al. (2019) is to use evidence from China to examine whether e-shopping replaces shopping trips. The study accurately sampled 710 e-shoppers through structured interviews in July and August 2016 in Chengdu, China discussing four types of goods (clothes and shoes, electronics, food and drink, and cosmetics). It should be noted that there are many more types of goods that were not studied.
To date, scholars have failed to reach consensus on how e-shopping impacts travel. Four types of impacts have been proposed by scholars: 1) substitution – shopping trips replaced with e-shopping, 2) complementarity – e-shopping increases with increase in frequency of shopping trips, 3) modification – typical shopping habits are altered, and 4) neutrality – e-shopping does not affect shopping travel (Shi et al. 2019:21).
The study of e-shoppers in Chengdu, China resulted in two implications for transportation systems. On one hand, e-shopping could be a solution to urban congestion because of the substitution effect of e-shopping on shopping trips (Shi et al. 2019:32). It is predicted that physical stores may lose customers over time, which in turn would cause a decrease in number of physical stores for clothes and shoes, electronics, food and drink, and cosmetics. On the other hand, the study found that people who do not own a private car (which is a much larger group compared to other countries) are more likely to substitute e-shopping for shopping trips (Shi et al. 2019:32). Nonetheless, there is much research to be done to further investigate e-shopping determinants, study non-tangible goods, and evaluate other determinants of urban congestion.
(Photo by Charlie Moseley for Surface Magazine.)
CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH E-COMMERCE
Overall, the results of the Shi et al. paper (2019) is highly speculative and vague. Although academic scholars receive more clarity on China’s e-commerce landscape, one of the highest levels of e-commerce usage in the world, the suggestion that e-shopping could solve urban congestion is highly debatable. Comparing various knowledge claims addressed in the research literature can help to contextualize how the research on e-commerce and travel has changed over time (Pettersson et al. 2018). When critiquing the impacts e-commerce may have on urban form, one may look toward the lack of policy in Swedish municipalities; e-commerce is primarily viewed as an opportunity to address transit system issues by the reduction of passenger travel (Pettersson et al. 2018:1). However, the broader literature on e-commerce has conveyed limited effects of e-commerce on prevailing mobility habits and reports that freight transport has actually increased in tandem with increased e-commerce.
The aforementioned study of e-commerce literature in planning found mixed results in the following three dimensions of e-commerce: passenger transport, location, and freight transport logistics (Pettersson et al. 2018). For instance, passenger transport in the long-term would decrease in volume whereas freight transport logistics in the short term would increase in volume. Additionally, it was found that the location of e-commerce facilities in the short term would have some effects in city centers but in the long term, e-commerce could impact the types of physical shops that exist in city centers.
In sum, research is varied. At this time, there is a need to develop proactive planning strategies to address the potential impacts of e-commerce. There is opportunity to harness the potential benefits of the proliferation of e-commerce, yet there are many challenges associated with e-commerce yet to be theorized in the realm of transportation and land use planning.
METHODOLOGY
In order to evaluate the effects e-commerce has on urban form and travel behavior, the use of modeling is key. Many scholars in the ICT field have used variations of spatial regression models and spatial pattern analysis (Fang et al. 2019). These types of models aid in evaluating the spatial relationships between variables, especially useful in determining the location of warehousing and distribution centers in regard to other spatial locations. Similarly, econometric models help to assess the significance of various economic quantities on a particular economic phenomenon. In the context of this research, the economic efficiency of fulfillment centers and distribution centers is an important factor in determining travel demand of goods and services. Next, structural equation modeling is a mixture of factor analysis and multiple regression analysis, which can be used to aggregate relationships in telecommunications and travel (Choo & Mokhtarian 2007). Uniformly modeling travel demand is a challenge with an overabundance of research in ICT, spatial structure, and travel. One suggestion is to combine passenger and freight demand modeling into a single integrated structure (Dias et al. 2020).
While forecasting may be a highly valuable tool for investigation, it is mystifying to find that research on the same topic can yield different results for different researchers. The following evidence explores the conflicting claims shared in this paper in order to shed light on the nuances of e-commerce and its effects.
EVIDENCE SUPPORTING COMPLEX NETWORK MODELING FOR E-COMMERCE
The most common evidence supporting the idea that e-commerce can encourage an efficient, sustainable transportation network is the substitution impact (Shi et al. 2019). In economic terms, this idea supports the claim that the demand for e-shopping is the best alternative to taking shopping trips. Scholars who back this theory highlight the close association between spatial organization of Amazon facilities with size of cities, density location, and proximity to transportation infrastructure (de Silva et al. 2020). If good networking modeling is produced to anticipate issues like urban congestion, last mile congestion, and environmental impacts, the transportation of e-goods can be efficient and proportionally deliver goods normally bought at a physical store.
Challenges to this position include arguments claiming that urban accessibility is challenged by demand congestion and environmental impacts, like air pollution (Pirra et al. 2019). In the same vein, a study of Tehran residents resulted in a complementary effect of ICT usage on travel demand (Ali et al. 2019). That being said, emerging innovation in the realm of connected and automated vehicles aims to monitor last mile congestion (Ehrler et al. 2020; Janjevic & Winkenbach 2020; Knowles & Lightstone 2017). This strategy is similar to the gaps that Amazon and other delivery services are trying to fill through the use of pick-up point networks and automated parcel systems, such as Amazon lockers found in centrally located areas (Fang et al. 2019).
EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THE DANGER OF E-COMMERCE ON CITIES
At face value, e-commerce can provide an opportunity for less passenger travel, efficient transportation of goods, and more flexible uses of land in city centers. However, as many argue (including Pettersson et al. 2018), the trajectory that e-commerce is headed is not sustainable. As previously mentioned, induced demand is a key concern of e-commerce (Ali et al. 2019). Studies have found that e-shopping impacts local shopping travel, and possibly land use over time (Xi et al. 2020).
On a more humanistic note, the rise in e-commerce purchases challenges city centers as commercial areas, which can hurt local businesses and the strength of a community. Similarly, it is important to question the justice and equity implications at play with the takeover of the market by businesses. Logistics facilities and fulfillment centers, which for Amazon can be the size of a medium-sized airport, are located just close enough to metropolitan areas where the majority of consumers reside but conveniently located in areas with serious environmental concerns. This points to an issue of environmental justice, as areas with more environmental problems are often where minorities, disadvantaged communities, or low-income individuals reside (Jaller et al. 2020).
Finally, a study of Amazon facilities in Japan and the United Kingdom reveals that Amazon is the first mover in the e-commerce sector that could leave a spatial footprint on future transportation and land use. Businesses similar to Amazon could follow this trend, including expanding logistics sprawl and clustering (de Silva et al. 2020:155). While e-commerce may be promising in theory as a means to address urban issues like congestion, the lack of consensus in this field of study highlights the limited knowledge researchers have on this subject. In order to move forward, planners and elected officials should weigh all perspectives when making decisions that accommodate or restrict large-scale network changes.
(Photo by Ablokhin/iStock Editorial/Getty Images Plus for Planning Magazine.)
EVALUATION
Clearly, spatial dynamics play a large role in transportation planning. The network of businesses like Amazon—from fulfillment to distribution to last mile (Rodrigue 2020)—not only impacts the structure of land and transportation networks but also people.
It is essential that practitioners center accessibility, equity, and sustainability at the forefront of these conversations. Placement of warehouses and distribution facilities have been found to be inequitable (Jaller et al. 2020), as well as locations chosen for logistics facilities (Sakai et al. 2020). Inequity around these facilities is typically characterizing environmental impact. Activism to promote environmental justice is extraordinarily important as private businesses, and not governmental agencies, are the main source of these inequities. On another note, the growth in the online commerce market is likely to shift land prices and rent prices, potentially working against low-income and/or minority populations. As urban planners, it is necessary that we continue to question who these delivery services are tailored for, and at what cost to people and environment are these services provided.
Cumulative spatial effects of e-commerce can only be hypothesized. However, planners can already observe changes from the traditional “brick-and-mortar” business model to the Internet era “click-and-mortar” business model (Pettersson et al. 2018). In preparation for changes in urban form that e-commerce may inflict, planners should anticipate demands of cities and neighborhoods (Nahiduzzaman et al. 2019). The implications of e-commerce on spatial structure are unknown; however, it is likely that change will not be unidirectional. It is recommended that further e-commerce research be pursued to tackle the lingering questions stakeholders may have associated with urban form and travel behavior.
Camilla is a Master of Urban and Regional Planning. She originally hails from the San Francisco Bay Area and received a B.A. in Environment in 2020 from the University of Michigan. Camilla participates in research with the Urban Scenarios Lab, interned with the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, and manages social media for Agora.
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